Crime
A study was released this week that runs counter to the narrative that the U.S. criminal justice system is systemically unjust based on race and class. The study, by Christopher J. Ferguson and Sven Smith, published in the journal Aggression and Violent Behavior, reviewed 51 academic studies on the issue that were published between 2005 and 2022. Ferguson’s and Smith’s paper first examines the many problems with research in this area, including data manipulation, citation bias, and small sample size. The authors evaluated the studies they reviewed to see how well the studies controlled for methodological flaws. They found that the better designed the studies, the less discrimination the studies found. Ultimately, the authors concluded, “we can see that knowing the race of a defendant is not very helpful to us in predicting their outcome in the criminal justice system, accounting for something like 0.3% of the variance in outcome.” The authors state that statistically in the research field, 0.3%, represents no correlation at all.
Such findings run counter to the prevailing narrative driving reform in the last few years that the system is hopelessly discriminatory. We should certainly be insisting on zero discrimination. We should also be skeptical of reforms based on inflated claims.
More Crime
The National Fraternal Order of Police released a report this week advising that a record number of police officers were shot in the line of duty in 2023. Nationwide, 378 officers were shot. This represents a 60% increase since 2018. Of those shot, 46 were killed. 115 of the shootings occurred in ambush-style attacks. The defund the police movement, as part of a broader soft-on-crime movement, is a likely contributor to these statistics. That movement, and the violence it precipitates, is also contributing to a shortage of police officers, which, in a vicious cycle, will make the job even more dangerous.
Poverty
Finish high school, then get a full-time job, then get married before you have children. This is referred to as “the success sequence.” It has been shown in numerous studies that following the success sequence virtually guarantees a person access to the middle class. 97% percent of people who follow the success sequence do not live in poverty. In contrast, 76% of people who do not follow the success sequence live in poverty.
Separation of powers
The Washington D.C. U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments this week in D.C.’s criminal case against Trump where he is charged with inciting an insurrection. Trump’s legal team moved to dismiss the charges arguing that Trump has presidential immunity for actions he undertook while President. They rely on a separation of powers analysis where they argue that the President must first be impeached and convicted by trial in the U.S. Senate before he may be charged criminally. Trump was impeached by the U.S. House for conduct related to the Capitol riots, but he was acquitted in the Senate. The Trump team’s arguments are well-founded, I believe, if Trump were still the sitting president. The rationale behind the impeachment-first requirement is that the President is the highest elected official in the country. Allowing lower-level elected officials, such as state prosecutors, the ability to seek criminal charges against a sitting president would subjugate the President’s authority and expose him to political harassment, making it impossible for the President to perform his duties. Trump, however, is not the current sitting President. Once a president is no longer actively in office, the rationale for requiring impeachment first falls away. Thus, the Trump team’s presidential immunity argument likely fails on this front.